I've been reading quite a bit and talking to a few people who work at CDC and this virus seems quite the scary beast. Has it affected you and the way that you work? Have you thought about it at all in terms of safety precautions? Also, as nature phtographers and people that spend a lot of time around widlife, you could possibly prove valuable in terms of getting information out about things out of the ordinary that you notice. Know who to contact in your area if you see things that raise alarm bells.
When the man who knows more about this than anyone recommends that you secure 3 months worth of food stock due to the possibility of pandemic, you have to take notice. Curious what others think on this subject. The world could very possibly be a very different place in the near future. Look forward to any replies. By the way, I used to be a frequent visitor here on the forum a couple of years ago. Just thought about this place after reading up a little bit. For more info, check out http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Main.HomePage
I've stopped giving mouth-to-mouth resuscitation to injured birds I come across.
Posted by Kent Staubus on March 21, 2006 at 5:03 PM
So far I haven't given it any thought at all. Right now all the snowgeese are coming through by the millions, along with the ducks and bald eagles looking for opportunites. (Was taking a photo of a train going through the snow and two eagles landed just a little ways away in a field while I was waiting!) I have noticed that there are suddenly a lot of "No Tresspassing" signs around the huge commercial turkey farms near me, but that's about it. So far, I'm not worried. But then, I wasn't worried about Y2K either.
I don't come into contact with birds much so I don't see much reason to change anything. I think those at most risk are people who travel a lot and come in contact with a lot of different people every day (which thankfully I am not).
If the "man who knows more about this than anyone" you're referring to is political-apointee (and hardly an expert) Mike Leavitt, then all I can add is - he used to be my governor, and I have no intention of taking his word for it.
Guy
Posted by Richard Wong on March 21, 2006 at 6:09 PM
They give free flu shots at the local supermarket. I haven't gotten mine yet though.
It hasn't affected my shooting patterns at all --- YET
Posted by Nathan Buck on March 21, 2006 at 10:31 PM
I heard an interesting story on NPR about the procedures that poultry farms are following now, pressure washing and disinfecting every vehicle on and off their farms. I honestly had not thought a lot about it for myself.
This is the article I was referring to. Might be worth your while to do some research. I know we're inundated with warnings about this and that but some of you that are out there on a daily basis are literally out there on the front lines so to speak. I know, I know...the sky is falling, the sky is falling. Well, in this case it might actually be true. Be safe out there. Do a google search for fluwiki for more information. The people I've talked to at CDC say this one is one bad mother.
There Are “About Even Odds” That the Virus Could Mutate to an Easily Transmitted Form, He Tells ‘World News Tonight’ , By JIM AVILA and MEREDITH RAMSEY
March 14, 2006 — - Robert G. Webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: Will the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to becoming a real threat to humans?
There are “about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human,” he told ABC’s “World News Tonight.” Webster, the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is credited with being the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.
Webster and his team of scientists are working to find a way to beat the virus if it morphs. He has even been dubbed the Flu Hunter.
Right now, H5N1, a type of avian influenza virus, has confined itself to birds. It can be transmitted from bird to human but only by direct contact with the droppings and excretions of infected birds.
But viruses mutate, and the big fear among the world’s scientists is that the bird flu virus will join the human flu virus, change its genetic code and emerge as a new and deadly flu that can spread through the air from human to human.
“I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations,” said Webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home in case of an outbreak.
Frightening Warning “Society just can’t accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility,” Webster said. “I’m sorry if I’m making people a little frightened, but I feel it’s my role.”
Most scientists won’t put it that bluntly, but many acknowledge that Webster could be right about the flu becoming transmissible among humans, even though they believe the 50 percent figure could be too high.
Researcher Dr. Anne Moscona at New York Weill Cornell Medical Center said that a human form may not mutate this year or next — or ever — but it would be foolish to ignore the dire consequences if it did.
“If bird flu becomes not bird flu but mutates into a form that can be transmitted between humans, we could then have a spread like wildfire across the globe,” Moscona said.
No one knows how long or how many mutation changes it would take for bird flu to become a direct threat to humans.
“It may not do it. There may just be too many changes. The virus may not be able to be a human virus,” Moscona said.
But that hasn’t stopped Moscona from searching for new types of anti-viral treatments that both prevent and slow the spread of bird flu.
“I don’t think that once we have human-to-human transmission, it’s going to be possible to contain it,” she said.
That is why nearly every viral scientist in America, perhaps the world, is waiting and watching the avian flu virus to see if it remains just a threat to birds or changes its genetic code and becomes just as deadly to humans
Posted by David Weber on March 21, 2006 at 11:39 PM
I won't worry until the avian experts here @ NPN start to.
Most probably the bird flu will continue to be a bird disease. There is a possibility of a pandemic but the chances seem a lot smaller than what newspapers and some politicians say.
There is no real reason why the H5N1 should mutate in the bad direction rather than anything else. Mutations are random errors introduced in the genome (mostly at the time of replication). To be able to infect certain cells, the virus particle must have proteins that fit like key and lock with a receptor on the surface of the target cells. Otherwise it`s very unlikely for the virus to get into the cell to do any damage and to replicate itself (viruses are in-cell paracites that can`t reproduce on their own). Now if you started filing and cutting a solid piece of brass with no idea what a key looks like - what`s the chance that you can make a key that matches your neighbours door?
As long as the flu can`t cross human to human, there`s little to worry about, except if you work in a poultry farm or something like that. Just avoid direct contact with birds and make sure to wash your hands and cook your meal properly
I think most bird photographers just WISH they had the problem of getting close enough to birds to be worried about bird-to-human transmission.
Biggest problem is being around other people in enclosed spaces, when and if it gets established in humans and in a form that is easily transmissible between humans.
Having a decent-sized stash of food and (less critical but still maybe a good idea if drinking water system fails) bottled water in your home is a good idea regardless of bird flu. Storms, terrorism, all sorts of things could happen to make it undesireable or impossible to get food. Cold canned soup might look really attractive in that situation!
A battery-powered radio would probably also be a good idea, as you probably know. In the event of a crunch, you'll be in better shape, and "the system" will be in better shape because there will be one less person/family needing urgent assistance.
Posted by Jonathan Ball on March 22, 2006 at 3:57 AM
The scary thing about bird flu is the mortality rate in humans who have caught it, something in the region of 50%, maybe higher (from memory so I may be wrong). But when you look at the human infection rate in countries where the disease has been prevalent for a number of years things don't look quite so bad. The number of cases are in the hundreds from an overall regional human population of well in excess of 1 billion. And most of those cases are people who live and/or work in close proximity to birds.
Obviously if the virus does mutate so that it can spread between humans then it becomes a whole different ballgame. But there is nothing to say that the mutated virus will have the same mortality rate as the current H5N1 virus.
At present I think it just makes a good news story and is being overhyped. I certainly hope this is the case
Posted by Dan Borzynski on March 22, 2006 at 8:30 AM
Irrational paranoia - nothing more and nothing less.
Realistically, the vast majority of cases are resulting from prolonged close proximately to birds, which indicates that transmission to humans is rather difficult, at this time. Can it mutate to be more infectious to humans? Sure. But there are a lot of other flu viruses out there as well which can change to something more deadly.
It is my feeling (and I DON'T have evidence to back this up) that the virus has been around for a while but is getting media time because of SARS.
Jim, I work in an emergency ward at one of the hospitals here in the city. So if there is any kind of outbreak I will be doing my part at work. I think there is worry because a number of people have caught the disease. And that it has originated in the same part of the world as the Sars virus. I think it is pointless to fret over this virus. Go out and do the things you enjoy doing like nature photography or birdwatching .
The bird flu it is thought will enter the U.S. this year. The doctor that first found it says there is a 50% chance it will mutate so that it will jump human to human. The people world wide will call upon their goverments to save them to no good end. After tens of millons have died they will call up study groups and goverment commissions to see what they did wrong. The masses will say it was God`s Will. The Earth is overpopulated, maby this will help. We have a host of new drugs that help the week and the mentaly infirm live to reproduce. We as a people do not have the guts, the backbone, or the will to do what it would take to fight this or any other bug and win.We might infringe on someone`s (RIGHTS) if we were to take action. If you do not see this to be true then tell me why we still have aids in this country? We have the ability to idenitfy if a person has the virus. In a few months we could test every person in the entire country and those found to be infected could be tatooed with a small letter (A) under their belly button. If you are about to do the wild thing you could see if they were safe. Is this or any thing like it ever going to happen, never!, why? All together now, because it would infringe on their rights. Look at what happened in the Gulf area after the storm. A snapshot of things to come. Go, put up food and water and fuel to run a generator, let things begin to get just a bit rough and the same people that could not get out of the Big Easy for the storm but could wade thru chest deep water and not get a 40 inch flat screen tv wet will be at your door to share your food. Are you going to share? You may not have power due to workers at the power plant sick or dieing, going to the hospital will be a joke, their staff will be sick also. There will be no help from the next state over, they got the same problem. And if you think any of this sounds just a tad bad you ain`t heard nothing yet!!!! Across the board most bugs kill or make very sick the weak amoung us, the very young, the very old or those that are allready compromised in some way. News Flash, the bird flu don`t work that way. It takes your immune system turns it around and makes it work against you! O`h happy days, it will kill the healthy first. I would go on but I got to go feed my chickens. Don Miller (see above) your comment is great!!
Posted by Kent Staubus on March 22, 2006 at 6:56 PM
While I agree that the bottom line is people should take care of themselves because government just can't do it, I also think this thread is starting to veer off into the hinterlands.
Kent in SD
Posted by Tony Kuyper on March 22, 2006 at 9:42 PM
The "War on Terror" is nothing compared to the war on microbes. Guess which one kills more humans every year. Bacteria, viruses, and fungi have been, are, and will continue to be our most formidable enemy and a leading cause of human suffering and death. These small packets of DNA with a bit of protoplasm adapt more easily and evolve faster than any other life form. Evolution got it right with these very simple organisms. Our efforts to eradicate them, with a few exceptions, only strengthen the ones that survive. You've heard of the Age of Dinosaurs and the Age of Mammals. Well, guess what? It has always been the Age of Microbes and always will be. Our "science" has helped hold them off quite well, but they just keep coming and in new forms. AIDS, Ebola, West Nile virus, and hantavirus are just a few that have evolved into very effective predators in my lifetime. Public health measures are one of our best defenses, but generally are only a little more effective than our current efforts in the "War on Terror". When was the last time you washed your hands?
Enjoy taking pictures. For at least a short time in human history we have the luxury of indulging our passions.
Posted by Marc Adamus on March 25, 2006 at 10:47 AM
Jim, my advice is to stop emmersing yourself in this. Can it happen? Yes. Will it? Doubtful. I've heard "pandemic" or worldwide crisis too many times to take this seriously. Remember Y2K? SARS? The government loves to deflect attention from the endless troubles both nationally and internationally and give the public a rallying point such as "pandemic". As Don mentions, I'll stop giving mouth-to-mouth to ill birds I encounter, but that's about it until millions of people start to die off rapidly. I can think of worse things that could happen.
another prophet of disaster who says this ship is lost,
another prophet of disaster leaving you to count the cost,
taunting us with visions, afflicting us with fear,
predicting (flu) for millions in the hope that (it) appears.
Much more deadly and common is the H9N2 strain! Heard of it?
This has been around for ever and occurs in over 50 countries. But doesn't get a word printed by the media. Why not? Because it doesn't spread across nations. If it's not a foreigner then it isn't any use to politicians who like to spread their unprovable facts. Like so many other unprovable enemies we are supposed to believe in, Bird Flu is not a significant threat.
It may be of some reassurance (or not) to those who beleive what the papers say, that ALL flu is ultimately derived from birds. Bird Flu has always killed the weak and immuno compromised. This strain would be no different if there wasn't a political motive to have us running scared of some phantom and a profiteering pharmaceutical with a useless vaccine at the ready.
As Marc and others have already alluded to, think of SARS, Y2K, Hoof and Mouth, Meteorite Strikes, Alien Invasions, and yes folks, Global Warming as well! We'll be scared of our shadows if the papers and politicians tell us to be!
I know this message is well after the date of the original post! Oh Well!
Discussion
21 repliesWhen the man who knows more about this than anyone recommends that you secure 3 months worth of food stock due to the possibility of pandemic, you have to take notice. Curious what others think on this subject. The world could very possibly be a very different place in the near future. Look forward to any replies. By the way, I used to be a frequent visitor here on the forum a couple of years ago. Just thought about this place after reading up a little bit. For more info, check out http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Main.HomePage
Kent in SD
If the "man who knows more about this than anyone" you're referring to is political-apointee (and hardly an expert) Mike Leavitt, then all I can add is - he used to be my governor, and I have no intention of taking his word for it.
Guy
Nathan
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/AvianFlu/…=1724801&page=1
Renowned Bird Flu Expert Warns: Be Prepared
There Are “About Even Odds” That the Virus Could Mutate to an Easily Transmitted Form, He Tells ‘World News Tonight’ , By JIM AVILA and MEREDITH RAMSEY
March 14, 2006 — - Robert G. Webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: Will the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to becoming a real threat to humans?
There are “about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human,” he told ABC’s “World News Tonight.” Webster, the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is credited with being the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.
Webster and his team of scientists are working to find a way to beat the virus if it morphs. He has even been dubbed the Flu Hunter.
Right now, H5N1, a type of avian influenza virus, has confined itself to birds. It can be transmitted from bird to human but only by direct contact with the droppings and excretions of infected birds.
But viruses mutate, and the big fear among the world’s scientists is that the bird flu virus will join the human flu virus, change its genetic code and emerge as a new and deadly flu that can spread through the air from human to human.
“I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations,” said Webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home in case of an outbreak.
Frightening Warning “Society just can’t accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility,” Webster said. “I’m sorry if I’m making people a little frightened, but I feel it’s my role.”
Most scientists won’t put it that bluntly, but many acknowledge that Webster could be right about the flu becoming transmissible among humans, even though they believe the 50 percent figure could be too high.
Researcher Dr. Anne Moscona at New York Weill Cornell Medical Center said that a human form may not mutate this year or next — or ever — but it would be foolish to ignore the dire consequences if it did.
“If bird flu becomes not bird flu but mutates into a form that can be transmitted between humans, we could then have a spread like wildfire across the globe,” Moscona said.
No one knows how long or how many mutation changes it would take for bird flu to become a direct threat to humans.
“It may not do it. There may just be too many changes. The virus may not be able to be a human virus,” Moscona said.
But that hasn’t stopped Moscona from searching for new types of anti-viral treatments that both prevent and slow the spread of bird flu.
“I don’t think that once we have human-to-human transmission, it’s going to be possible to contain it,” she said.
That is why nearly every viral scientist in America, perhaps the world, is waiting and watching the avian flu virus to see if it remains just a threat to birds or changes its genetic code and becomes just as deadly to humans
There is no real reason why the H5N1 should mutate in the bad direction rather than anything else. Mutations are random errors introduced in the genome (mostly at the time of replication). To be able to infect certain cells, the virus particle must have proteins that fit like key and lock with a receptor on the surface of the target cells. Otherwise it`s very unlikely for the virus to get into the cell to do any damage and to replicate itself (viruses are in-cell paracites that can`t reproduce on their own). Now if you started filing and cutting a solid piece of brass with no idea what a key looks like - what`s the chance that you can make a key that matches your neighbours door?
As long as the flu can`t cross human to human, there`s little to worry about, except if you work in a poultry farm or something like that. Just avoid direct contact with birds and make sure to wash your hands and cook your meal properly
Biggest problem is being around other people in enclosed spaces, when and if it gets established in humans and in a form that is easily transmissible between humans.
Having a decent-sized stash of food and (less critical but still maybe a good idea if drinking water system fails) bottled water in your home is a good idea regardless of bird flu. Storms, terrorism, all sorts of things could happen to make it undesireable or impossible to get food. Cold canned soup might look really attractive in that situation!
A battery-powered radio would probably also be a good idea, as you probably know. In the event of a crunch, you'll be in better shape, and "the system" will be in better shape because there will be one less person/family needing urgent assistance.
Obviously if the virus does mutate so that it can spread between humans then it becomes a whole different ballgame. But there is nothing to say that the mutated virus will have the same mortality rate as the current H5N1 virus.
At present I think it just makes a good news story and is being overhyped. I certainly hope this is the case
Realistically, the vast majority of cases are resulting from prolonged close proximately to birds, which indicates that transmission to humans is rather difficult, at this time. Can it mutate to be more infectious to humans? Sure. But there are a lot of other flu viruses out there as well which can change to something more deadly.
It is my feeling (and I DON'T have evidence to back this up) that the virus has been around for a while but is getting media time because of SARS.
And always wash your hands.
Will
Edmonton, Alberta
Canada
Regards
Kent in SD
Enjoy taking pictures. For at least a short time in human history we have the luxury of indulging our passions.
http://citypages.com/databank/27/1320/article14219.asp
another prophet of disaster leaving you to count the cost,
taunting us with visions, afflicting us with fear,
predicting (flu) for millions in the hope that (it) appears.
wise words from iron maiden, who also advised:
if your gonna die, die with your boots on.
long live rock and roll
Much more deadly and common is the H9N2 strain! Heard of it?
This has been around for ever and occurs in over 50 countries. But doesn't get a word printed by the media. Why not? Because it doesn't spread across nations. If it's not a foreigner then it isn't any use to politicians who like to spread their unprovable facts. Like so many other unprovable enemies we are supposed to believe in, Bird Flu is not a significant threat.
It may be of some reassurance (or not) to those who beleive what the papers say, that ALL flu is ultimately derived from birds. Bird Flu has always killed the weak and immuno compromised. This strain would be no different if there wasn't a political motive to have us running scared of some phantom and a profiteering pharmaceutical with a useless vaccine at the ready.
As Marc and others have already alluded to, think of SARS, Y2K, Hoof and Mouth, Meteorite Strikes, Alien Invasions, and yes folks, Global Warming as well! We'll be scared of our shadows if the papers and politicians tell us to be!
I know this message is well after the date of the original post! Oh Well!
Dave,
Forest of Dean, UK